Jalen - Jaylen - Jackpot! 🎰
Smallball-ers, welcome to Thursday's edition, where we'll dive into 3 playoff games and take a peek at what else is happening in the sports world.
🎯Any surprises yesterday?
Remember, we expected the Celtics to beat the Magic (~85% chance), Cavaliers to beat the Heat (also ~85%), and Rockets to beat the Warriors (~60%). Let's go to the scoreboard:
With games won by 9 points, 9 points, and 15 points we have to ask...
🎬Were they competitive games?
Let's go beyond the final score. ESPN has a cool way to show the game flow by tracking each team's win probability at every moment during the game.
So, looking at the Celtics-Magic game, you see the line start at 75% chance for the Celtics to win, about halfway between 50% (Celtics and Magic each have a 50% chance) and the bottom 100% (Celtics are guaranteed to win...we never get to 100% until the game is actually over even if the line sometimes is at 99.9% for a long time in a blowout!). I guess the experts changed their opinion a little bit - from 85% to 75% - when it became clear Jayson Tatum was not going to play because of his wrist injury.
The lowest the Celtics' chance of winning ever got was 66% with 3 minutes left in the first quarter when Paolo Banchero hit a jumper and the Magic took the lead 17-16. The percentage was similar (68%) in the third quarter when the Magic's Franz Wagner cut the Celtics lead to 50-49, but with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter the Celtics led 96-85 and had a 98% chance to win.
Here's the ESPN win probability chart for the Cavalier's 9-point win over the Heat:
The Cavaliers’ win probability dipped to its lowest at 60% half way through the first quarter when Miami made a three-pointer to take a 16-7 lead. Even losing by 9 the Cavaliers were expected to come back and win, and they did. The Cavaliers took the lead near the end of the first quarter and led the rest of the game.
And here's the win probability for the Rockets’ 15-point win over Golden State:
The Rockets' win probability climbed steadily throughout the game, hitting a decisive 95% mark with 8 minutes left in the second quarter when a three-pointer made the score 40-20. From there, Houston maintained their dominance all game long.
🏀Who played best?
Top scorers:
Jalen Green 🚀 - 38 points including 8 made 3-pointers
Jaylen Brown ☘️ - 36 points with Jayson Tatum out
Tyler Herro 🔥 - 33 points in a loss
Paolo Banchero 🪄 - 32 points but only 6 of 11 from the free throw line
Donovan Mitchell ⚔️ - 30 points including 17 in the 4th quarter
This was the Jalen Green show, as he became the youngest guard in NBA history to make eight three-pointers in a playoff game and had the highest-scoring postseason game by a Rockets player since James Harden in 2020. (🎤 Who does James Harden play for now?)
Jaylen Brown stepped up in Jayson Tatum's absence, delivering 10 rebounds and 5 assists to go with his 36 points. He became just the second Celtic, alongside Tatum, to record at least 35 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 three-pointers in a playoff game.
What else?
The Warriors-Rockets game was a good reminder that a basketball game can have both silly and serious moments.
Silly: the TV cameras caught Jalen Green pulling his shorts down to tuck his jersey in right before tip-off!
This reminded me of a famous video when Steve Lyons, a baseball player, accidentally dropped his pants to shake dirt out after sliding into first base!
Serious: Warriors forward Jimmy Butler hurt his pelvis in the first quarter when he was undercut by Rockets guard Amen Thompson during a rebound attempt, causing both players to fall. Butler missed the rest of the game and his status for Game 3 remains uncertain.
Tonight’s games
🗽 New York Knicks (1–1) @ 🐎 Detroit Pistons (1–1)
Time: 7p ET (TNT)
The series shifts to Detroit after the Pistons snapped a 15-game playoff losing streak in Game 2.
Experts say: ~55% chance the Knicks win
⚡ Oklahoma City Thunder (2–0) @ 🐻 Memphis Grizzlies (0–2)
Time: 9:30p ET (TNT)
The Thunder have dominated the series and the Grizzlies need a strong performance to avoid an 0–3 deficit.
Experts say: ~80% chance the Thunder win
🏔️ Denver Nuggets (1–1) @ ⛵️ LA Clippers (1–1)
Time: 10p ET
Both games so far came down to the final possession. Michael Porter Jr. is listed as questionable due to a left shoulder sprain. He practiced on Wednesday.
Experts say: 65% chance the Clippers win
🎤Before you go
🏈 The 2025 NFL Draft starts tonight in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Tennessee Titans hold the No. 1 overall pick, with Miami quarterback Cam Ward widely projected to go first. Analysts expect a strong defensive class and multiple trades throughout the evening.
🏒 The NHL Playoffs are underway the top three favorites to win the Stanley Cup are the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, and Winnipeg Jets.
⚾ The Major League Baseball (MLB) season is underway and most teams have played ~25 games (out of 162 for the full regular season). It's still early, but the teams with the best record so far are the New York Mets (18–7), San Diego Padres (17–8), and Los Angeles Dodgers + San Francisco Giants (both 16–9).
That’s all for today - you’re all caught up on Wednesday’s action. See you tomorrow!!
▶️ Got more time?
Short game recaps (~2 minutes per game)
Full game highlights (~12 minutes per game)